Subject:                                 Ed Holland and Jordan Lake

Date:                           Sat, 19 Mar 2011 16:20:09 -0400

From:                          Elliot M. Cramer




CC:                                         barry jacobs <>,,,,,,,,



Why is this incompetent Ed Holland still advising OWASA?



You will recall that many years ago, he predicted that OWASA

water demand would grow exponentially, continuing to claim this

even after Ed Kerwin publicly agreed that growth was linear.  He

based this on fitting an exponential curve to what was clearly a

straight line.  In fact, usage is what it was 20 years ago

(6.86mgd)  and rates have skyrocketed due to your foolish

conservation efforts. Your consultants agreed with Erwin Danziger

and me that growth would be linear though we said that it would

flatten due to limitations on growth in the OWASA service area.

See attached OWASA projections which show the OWASA estimates for

2011 as between 10.5 mgd and 12 mgd with safe yield of the system

as 15 mgd.  Had you listened to us, in another year you would

have a hole in the ground that would hold over 1.5 billion

gallons of water which could be used save the substantial

overflow from University Lake and you would have been receiving

substantial royalties from American Stone all these years.


Why is demand so much less than previously predicted?  Because

(as Erwin and I said in 2000) growth in demand was linear and

flattening, not exponential as Ed Holland of OWASA said at the

November 23, 1996 meeting of the Quarry Mediation Process -


"Up until the past few years, OWASA interpreted the historical

trend since 1977 as a constant (linear) increase of 0.186 mgd per

year, but more recent data seem to support a geometric increase

of 3.6% per year."


Why are new connection fees down? Because (as we said in 2000)

Chapel Hill and Carrboro were getting built out.  Why are OWASA's

rates going up?  Because of their stupid policies.  Is there a

water shortage when OWASA says there is a 395 day supply with NO

additional rainfall and water frequently flows over the dam at

University Lake?  Was there ever a water shortage  when the

quarries were 40% full at its lowest point.  OWASA then claimed a

six month supply assuming NO FURTHER RAINFALL.  When have we gone

six months without rainfall?  Is there intelligent life in the

OWASA planning department?


Wouldn't it be nice if OWASA had listened to us in 2000 and did

not allow American Stone to expand the quarry?  They would have a

hole in the ground right now that would hold at least 1.5 billion

gallons of water, water that flows over the University Lake dam,

enough to handle demand at OWASA forever. It evidently is not

widely realized that University Lake has more inflow than Cane

Creek and all that water will be wasted until 2035 because Ed

Holland said that demand was increasing exponentially.  Based on

Don Lauria's work, it is doubtful that such a quarry would be

full very often.  I think that the views Erwin and I expressed to

OWASA in 2000 have held up pretty well, even in our expectation

that UNC's water usage would go down.






Elliot M. Cramer

PO 428

Chapel Hill, NC 27514




Professor Emeritus

Department of Psychology

University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill