Subject: Ed Holland and Jordan Lake
Date: Sat, 19 Mar 2011 16:20:09 -0400
From: Elliot M. Cramer
CC: barry jacobs <firstname.lastname@example.org>,
Why is this incompetent Ed Holland still advising OWASA?
You will recall that many years ago, he predicted that OWASA
water demand would grow exponentially, continuing to claim this
even after Ed Kerwin publicly agreed that growth was linear. He
based this on fitting an exponential curve to what was clearly a
straight line. In fact, usage is what it was 20 years ago
(6.86mgd) and rates have skyrocketed due to your foolish
conservation efforts. Your consultants agreed with Erwin Danziger
and me that growth would be linear though we said that it would
flatten due to limitations on growth in the OWASA service area.
See attached OWASA projections which show the OWASA estimates for
2011 as between 10.5 mgd and 12 mgd with safe yield of the system
as 15 mgd. Had you listened to us, in another year you would
have a hole in the ground that would hold over 1.5 billion
gallons of water which could be used save the substantial
overflow from University Lake and you would have been receiving
substantial royalties from American Stone all these years.
Why is demand so much less than previously predicted? Because
(as Erwin and I said in 2000) growth in demand was linear and
flattening, not exponential as Ed Holland of OWASA said at the
November 23, 1996 meeting of the Quarry Mediation Process -
"Up until the past few years, OWASA interpreted the historical
trend since 1977 as a constant (linear) increase of 0.186 mgd per
year, but more recent data seem to support a geometric increase
of 3.6% per year."
Why are new connection fees down? Because (as we said in 2000)
Chapel Hill and Carrboro were getting built out. Why are OWASA's
rates going up? Because of their stupid policies. Is there a
water shortage when OWASA says there is a 395 day supply with NO
additional rainfall and water frequently flows over the dam at
University Lake? Was there ever a water shortage when the
quarries were 40% full at its lowest point. OWASA then claimed a
six month supply assuming NO FURTHER RAINFALL. When have we gone
six months without rainfall? Is there intelligent life in the
OWASA planning department?
Wouldn't it be nice if OWASA had listened to us in 2000 and did
not allow American Stone to expand the quarry? They would have a
hole in the ground right now that would hold at least 1.5 billion
gallons of water, water that flows over the University Lake dam,
enough to handle demand at OWASA forever. It evidently is not
widely realized that University Lake has more inflow than Cane
Creek and all that water will be wasted until 2035 because Ed
Holland said that demand was increasing exponentially. Based on
Don Lauria's work, it is doubtful that such a quarry would be
full very often. I think that the views Erwin and I expressed to
OWASA in 2000 have held up pretty well, even in our expectation
that UNC's water usage would go down.
WHAT WATER SHORTAGE!!!!!!!!
Elliot M. Cramer
Chapel Hill, NC 27514
Department of Psychology
University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill